Background
Syria's civil war, which began as peaceful protests in 2011 amid the Arab Spring, transformed into a complex proxy conflict that has reshaped the Middle East. Russia's military intervention in 2015 marked a decisive shift, providing Assad's forces with crucial air support that reversed major rebel gains, culminating in the fall of Aleppo in 2016—a victory that seemed to cement Assad's survival. The conflict then evolved into a multilayered struggle involving regional powers, with Türkiye establishing a security zone in the north, Kurdish forces controlling the northeast, and various opposition groups maintaining strongholds in Idlib province. Since 2020, these battle lines had remained largely static, with Assad controlling approximately 60% of the country, including most major cities, in what many viewed as a frozen conflict that favored the regime's gradual reconsolidation of power.
The New Offensive
Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda that has since rebranded itself as a dominant force in the Syrian opposition, as well as allied factions, rebel forces have shattered the stalemate with a highly coordinated and sophisticated offensive. They have severed the Damascus-Aleppo highway, which facilitates approximately 60% of the country’s exports, and are making inroads into Hama. The operation also coincides with the SNA initiating their own offensive in Tel Rifaat, marking the first instance of synchronized multifront operations by opposition factions.
Under HTS commander Abu Mohammad Al Jowlani's leadership, the rebels have revolutionized their military approach. Rather than conducting isolated attacks, they now execute coordinated operations where armed drones first strike government positions, followed by precise artillery barrages, before assault teams move in to secure objectives. This sophisticated synchronization of different combat elements demonstrates a level of military capability not seen from the opposition since the war began.
The Four-Year Transformation
During the lull in fighting, HTS underwent a remarkable transformation under Abu Mohammad Al Jowlani's leadership. The group transitioned from a purely militant organization to somewhat of a -governing authority in its controlled territories, investing heavily in state-building efforts through the Syrian Salvation Government. Key developments included:
A Military College: Established in 2022, the college standardizes training across factions, improving cohesion and operational effectiveness.
Civil Institutions and Security Forces: HTS created administrative and internal security structures to maintain order and project authority in its territories.
Construction Companies and Zakat Programs: The group used construction initiatives and aid distribution through zakat, an Islamic obligation for charitable giving, to win local support and rebuild infrastructure.
Counter-Terrorism Capabilities: HTS focused on eliminating IS (Islamic State, formerly ISIS) cells, reinforcing its position as the dominant power in opposition-held Syria.
Professional Governance: The development of governance structures reflects an effort to transition from insurgency to sustainable administration, enhancing the group's long-term control over its territories.
Meanwhile, Assad's forces focused on trading captagon—a popular drug in the Middle East)—rather than military modernization, leaving them vulnerable to well-trained opposition forces.
Why Now: A Perfect Storm
The timing of this offensive coincides with multiple regional distractions:
- Iran and Hezbollah are heavily engaged in Gaza and Lebanon
- Russian forces are redeployed to Ukraine
- U.S. withdrawal from supporting Kurdish forces
- Turkish dynamics are affecting rebel operations
The Turkish factor remains crucial, with groups like the Sultan Murad Division and the Joint Force potentially planning separate operations against Kurdish positions in Tel Rifaat, a strategically significant town that controls access to key routes along the Damascus-Aleppo corridor. Tel Rifaat controls over approximately 60% of the region's clean water resources, making it a vital asset for any controlling force. While recent Russian airstrikes have dampened some of these plans, increased Turkish support could prove decisive for rebel success.
An HTS fighter tears down a portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Anjarah, western countryside of Aleppo, after capturing the area. Assad regime forces retreated after sustaining heavy losses.
Implications for Assad's Regime
The contrast between HTS's institutional development and Assad's deteriorating position during the stalemate years has proven decisive. While opposition forces built military academies and governance structures, the regime's focus on captagon trade rather than military readiness created critical vulnerabilities. The fall of Aleppo—a city whose recapture in 2016 symbolized Assad's resurgence—now represents the potential unraveling of regime control in northern Syria. Most critically, the loss of the Damascus-Aleppo corridor threatens to split regime-held territory into isolated pockets, undermining Assad's ability to maintain centralized control or economic viability. This strategic reversal, occurring while key allies Russia and Iran face their own regional distractions, suggests a fundamental shift in Syria's balance of power that may prove irreversible for the regime.
Regional Implications
The collapse of Assad's position cascades across the regional power structure, fundamentally altering strategic calculations from Moscow to Tehran to Jerusalem. This transformation of Syria's internal dynamics forces regional powers to confront new strategic realities while creating opportunities for shifts in long-established alliances.
Russia's Strategic Dilemma
The fall of Aleppo presents Moscow with a critical strategic challenge that now threatens its vital Mediterranean assets. Russia's naval facility in Tartus—its only Mediterranean port and sole naval base outside the former Soviet Union—could face increasing pressure as rebel forces consolidate their gains in northern Syria and potentially push toward central regions. Similarly, Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia province, essential for projecting power in the region and housing significant aerospace forces and air defense systems, finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. With most of Russia's experienced Syria-based forces redeployed to Ukraine and remaining air assets stretched thin between multiple objectives, Moscow faces difficult choices about protecting these strategic facilities that represent nearly a decade of military investment in the Mediterranean.
Reduction in Hezbollah's Armament
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered with international backing, imposes strict restrictions on Hezbollah’s movements and operations in southern Lebanon. This includes enhanced monitoring by the Lebanese army and U.N. forces, which directly inhibits the smuggling of Iranian arms through Syria into Lebanon. With the rebel offensive further disrupting supply lines inside Syria, Hezbollah’s access to advanced weaponry will diminish significantly, marking a substantial advantage for Israel.
This reduction in arms smuggling weakens Hezbollah’s military capabilities, lessening its immediate threat to Israel. Furthermore, Hezbollah’s internal fractures and focus on post-war survival, following substantial leadership losses, reduce the likelihood of the group diverting resources to aid Assad’s faltering regime.
Weakened Iranian Influence in Syria
The rebel offensive exposes the vulnerabilities of Assad’s government, a cornerstone of Iran’s regional strategy. Assad’s weakened grip on key regions like Aleppo challenges Iran’s ability to maintain its influence in Syria. A diminished Assad regime limits Iran’s access to vital land corridors used for supplying weapons and logistical support to its proxies, including Hezbollah.
As Iranian support becomes increasingly overstretched—due to its commitments in Gaza, Yemen, and Lebanon—Iran’s ability to project power through its network of regional puppets is diminishing. This erosion of influence directly benefits Israel by reducing the operational capacity of Iran’s proxies and challenging its broader strategic foothold in the region.
Long-Term Implications for Israel
A weakened Syria and constrained Hezbollah create a more favorable security environment for Israel. The disruption of arms smuggling through Syria to Lebanon, combined with Hezbollah’s internal focus on survival, grants Israel an opportunity to consolidate its northern defenses. Additionally, Iran’s diminishing influence undermines its ability to use Syria as a staging ground for future provocations against Israel.
If the rebels in Syria succeed in toppling Assad’s regime, it could further fracture the Iranian-led alliance, creating a power vacuum that limits Iran’s regional ambitions. However, the rise of extremist factions within the rebel coalition remains a potential threat, necessitating continued vigilance from Israel.
Looking Ahead
The coming weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory of the Syrian civil war. Rebel success in Aleppo and Hama could signal the collapse of Assad’s ability to govern large portions of Syria, fracturing his regime’s control. For the broader region, these developments could weaken Iranian influence and disrupt the balance of power in ways that benefit Israel and Türkiye while creating new challenges in managing rebel-held territories.
What is certain is that Syria’s frozen conflict has entered a new, volatile phase, with consequences that could reshape the Middle East.